To higher its monsoon forecast, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) will use the multi-model ensemble strategy and in addition give a month-to-month outlook for the 4 months of the rainfall season, its director normal (DG) mentioned immediately.
The IMD will even give a flood warning forecast to the Central Water Commission for 5 days, IMD DG Mrutunjay Mohapatra added.
It at present provides flood forecasts for 3 days.
Addressing a day-long seminar on “Annual Monsoon E-Workshop and National E-symposium on Cloud Precipitation”, Mr Mohapatra admitted that the forecast for Southwest Monsoon, 2020 was not correct.
The seminar was attended by senior scientists of the Ministry of Earth Sciences establishments and senior meteorologists of the IMD.
On the monsoon forecasts for 2021, Mr Mohapatra mentioned, “We will be using the multi-model ensemble approach for forecasting Southwest Monsoon 2021.”
This will embody different dynamical fashions, which give weightage to completely different parameters whereas issuing forecasts.
Currently, forecasts are made utilizing the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) and Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS).
“We will also try to give monthly forecasts for all the four months of monsoon,” Mr Mohapatra added.
June to September are, formally, the rainfall months of the nation.
Currently, the IMD doesn’t give a forecast for June. However, it does give forecasts for each two weeks.
June being the sowing week in lots of elements of the nation, the IMD is aiming to supply forecasts for June in addition to the opposite three months.
The IMD had made a forecast of regular rainfall final yr however the nation obtained above regular rainfall.
“The seasonal forecast evaluation was not that good. We may sense the pattern that it will be a great yr however quantitatively, (however) the forecast efficiency was not correct as anticipated with respect to seasonal rainfall.
“Similarly, with respect to rainfall throughout July and August, we couldn’t predict properly. It was past the error restrict. Except the onset for the monsoon forecast, different forecasts went improper for the season,” Mr Mohapatra mentioned.
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