By Prabhudatta Mishra
Production of cotton and groundnut within the present kharif season is ready to drop as dry climate within the first three months of the June-September monsoon season has dragged down sowing of those crops in Gujarat, the biggest producing state, whereas decrease acreages in different states has dimmed the possibilities of an general restoration.
However, it may not be as unhealthy as in kharif 2018-19, when output of cotton and groundnut had declined 15% and 29%, respectively, on-year, analysts stated.
Assuming the present pan-India groundnut sowing space at about 49 lakh hectare as last acreage and common yield of final season’s 1.7 tonne/hectare, the manufacturing could also be about 83.Three lakh tonne on this kharif, 3% down from earlier season. Of 102.1 lakh tonne of groundnut produced in 2020-21 crop yr (July-June), the kharif crop had about 84% share whereas the remaining harvest was from rabi season.
Cotton manufacturing might also fall by 9% to 322.5 lakh bales (one bale weighs 170 kg) on foundation of 119.5 lakh hectare acreage and a couple of.7 bales/hectare yield. The goal for this yr is 370 lakh bales. The Union agriculture ministry is more likely to launch the primary advance estimate of kharif crops output for 2021-22 within the third week of this month.
Apart from Gujarat, groundnut acreage in different main producers like Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka has additionally dropped from last-year’s space. Similarly, sowing space beneath cotton can be down (y-o-y) in Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Haryana.
The acreage of cotton in Gujarat has declined 1.3% to 22.5 lakh hectare and that of groundnut by 7.7% to 19.1 lakh hectare as on September 10 from their year-ago ranges, official knowledge of Gujarat present. Kharif sowing is nearly over and there’s little probability of enchancment as per knowledge acquired from all districts prior to now few weeks, in keeping with an official of the state authorities.
The rainfall deficit in Gujarat was 50% throughout June-August and every month additionally had under regular precipitation. Some enhancements have been observed in first week of September which had 98% above regular rains. The irrigated space beneath groundnut is simply 12% and for cotton 59% within the state.
“The production will definitely be lower as yield may be affected due to poor rainfall continuously for three months. However, a possible larger damage has been contained with the recent rains,” an agriculture scientist stated, requesting anonymity as he didn’t wish to be seen difficult the state authorities’s manufacturing estimates.
Last month, Gujarat launched its crop forecast for the state during which groundnut manufacturing was pegged marginally larger (0.2%) from earlier yr’s 39.86 lakh tonne whereas cotton output seen at 11% larger from earlier yr’s 72.7 lakh bales (one bale weighs 170 kg). On the opposite hand, oilseeds merchants estimate groundnut manufacturing to be about 3% decrease within the state.
“The cottonseed prices are very high even as the crop is going to arrive in less than a month. This may be either due to a robust demand or expectation of a decline in crop,” stated Bavish Patel, a dealer of Rajkot. There has been a shift from groundnut to soyabean after the latter’s costs exponentially elevated this yr, Patel stated.
Soyabean costs in lots of locations in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have crossed Rs 10,000/quintal this yr, which is a file. This compares with all India common of Rs 3,904/quintal, marginally above minimal help worth (MSP) of Rs 3,880, throughout key harvesting interval October-December 2020.
“Amid an expected lower than normal soyabean crop output for third consecutive year, the fall in groundnut production will be a temporary setback for the government’s oilseed mission. There may be several measures including import duty cut and stock holding limits to keep domestic prices from further increase,” stated a former agriculture commissioner. If cotton costs go up as a consequence of fall in manufacturing, it could assist improve sowing space subsequent yr and inspire paddy farmers for diversification, he added.